PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PIPELINE INFRASTRUCTURE BETWEEN KAZAKHSTAN AND CHINA: ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY AND GEOPOLITICAL RISKS

Abstract

The increasing complexity of the global energy environment and the intensification of competition for transport corridors significantly enhance the scholarly relevance of analyzing pipeline cooperation between Kazakhstan and China. Ensuring reliable and uninterrupted transportation of energy resources has become a matter of strategic importance within the contemporary system of international relations. The purpose of this study is to substantiate the key determinants influencing the prospects for the development of major infrastructure between the two states, as well as to identify internal and external factors shaping the sustainability of energy interaction. The research employs comparative-analytical and structural methods, along with the analysis of statistical data, international agreements, and regulatory documents, which ensures a comprehensive and systematic character of the findings. The scientific value of the study lies in clarifying the criteria for assessing the effectiveness of transboundary energy routes and identifying the prerequisites necessary to enhance the long-term resilience of infrastructure projects.

The results demonstrate that further expansion of the pipeline system is economically justified, as it contributes to strengthening transport and energy linkages between the states, diversifying export routes, and ensuring more efficient utilization of transit potential. At the same time, the implementation of such projects is associated with geopolitical risks stemming from shifts in the regional balance of power, the influence of external actors, and technological constraints that require additional institutional and investment solutions. The scientific novelty of the research is reflected in the proposed approaches aimed at enhancing the sustainability of energy policy, adapting strategic priorities to changes in the international environment, and developing mechanisms to mitigate emerging risks. The practical significance of the study lies in the applicability of its results to the development of transit infrastructure programs, the assessment of new investment projects, and the modelling of scenarios for energy cooperation in the Eurasian region.