GEOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF KAZAKHSTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS THE SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MIDDLE CORRIDOR
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48371/ISMO.2026.63.1.001Keywords:
geoeconomics, geoeconomic determinants, Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan foreign policy, South Caucasus, connectivity diplomacy, conflict positioning, multivector foreign policy, hedging, complex balancing; vector hierarchy, transport corridors and connectivityAbstract
This article examines how geoeconomic factors associated with the development of the Middle Corridor have influenced Kazakhstan’s foreign policy towards the South Caucasus between 2010 and 2025. Treating corridor-building as a structural shift in available connectivity options, the study conceptualises Kazakhstan’s regional behaviour across two empirically traceable domains: connectivity diplomacy outputs (initiatives, agreements, and routinised consultations that enhance transit performance) and conflict positioning outputs (official narratives, legal framing, and diplomatic signalling regarding regional disputes). Using qualitative content analysis of secondary documentary sources, the article identifies key determinants shaping policy choice, including corridor efficiency and market access; infrastructure vulnerability and chokepoints; diversification and resilience objectives; stakeholder embedding across public-private and external partners; and institutional constraints that delimit feasible commitments. The findings show that corridor-driven interdependence intensifies Kazakhstan’s engagement with transit nodes through pragmatic, performance-oriented diplomacy, while simultaneously encouraging cautious and legally framed positioning on Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions to avoid reputational and operational risks. These patterns are interpreted through multivector hedging and complex balancing, producing a domain-specific vector hierarchy in which corridor functionality is prioritised without implying wholesale political alignment. The study contributes an operationally grounded framework for linking geoeconomic connectivity to observable foreign-policy behaviour in a conflict-sensitive transit region.
Funding: This research paper was supported by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan under Grant “AP22788787 – Challenges and Opportunities in the Implementation of the International Trans-Caspian Route in the Context of Ensuring the National Interests of Kazakhstan”.
