MIGRATION PROCESSES AND THE TRANSFORMATION OF KAZAKHSTAN’S DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE DURING THE YEARS OF INDEPENDENCE: FACTORS, SCALE, AND CONSEQUENCES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.48371/ISMO.2026.63.1.003Keywords:
Kazakhstan, migration, internal migration, international migration, demographic structure, urbanization, ethno-demography, population ageingAbstract
This study assesses the contribution of migration to changes in Kazakhstan’s demographic structure over the period 1991–2024. The research draws on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of Kazakhstan (population censuses of 1999, 2009, and 2021; annual population registers), administrative data on residence permits and repatriation (oralman/qandas), as well as international migration data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA). Methodologically, the study combines several approaches: cohort–component decomposition to distinguish the contributions of natural increase and net migration; shift–share analysis to assess the effects of interregional migration flows; event-study and difference-in-differences (DID) methods to identify the impacts of changes in migration policy (repatriation programs, liberalization or tightening of entry rules); and the Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition to analyze differences by urbanization level and sex–age structure.
The empirical analysis focuses on three main dimensions: (i) age structure of the population and demographic dependency ratios; (ii) changes in the ethno-demographic composition; and (iii) the interregional redistribution of human capital. The study is expected to quantify the contribution of migration to the pace of urbanization and population ageing, as well as to identify regions most sensitive to migration inflows and outflows. As a practical outcome, a set of maps and dashboards will be developed, along with policy recommendations to support targeted planning in housing, labor market, and education sectors for both donor and recipient regions.
Funding: This scientific article was prepared within the framework of the
research project No. AR26198891 “A Comparative Analysis of the Socio-Cultural
Development of Compatriots from Mongolia and Uzbekistan in Kazakhstan”,
funded under the Grant Funding Program for Fundamental and Applied Scientific
Research for 2025–2027 by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the
Republic of Kazakhstan.
